Wednesday, March 05, 2008

The Math- as near as I can figure it...

Obama - 1573

2025 needed to win, so he needs 452 or she needs 561. Florida is off the table (For now- and would represent some split of 210, If they went by the results that came out from the sham election it would be some split of 50/33/14/1 Clinton/Obama/Edwards/Kucinich, I think they'd have to do it over again. I definitely think they'll have to do Michigan over again - or never seat the delegates- Obama wasn't even listed on the Ballot)

So there are 11 contests left:
Wyoming this weekend- 18
Mississippi -40
Pennsylvania -188
North Carolina -134
West Virginia- 39
South Dakota- 23
Puerto Rico - 55
For a total of 736 contested state elected delegates.
there are 346 undecided Super Delegates.

The polls I've seen have him ahead in North Carolina and behind in Pennsylvania.
Assuming she wins in Pennsylvania by margins similar to Ohio, she'd be up maybe 30 delegates from her current deficit, but North Carolina might wipe most of that out. I haven't seen any polls on Mississippi or Wyoming yet.


At 6:44 AM , Anonymous Mike said...

The Democrats can't keep the Florida or Michigan results and keep the support of the huge national primary turnout in the general election (or ever, for that matter). Those states moved their primaries up in the first place to increase their influence in picking a candidate -- which is what they'll have now if they agree to redo their primaries. The only people who won't be able to take away something from this will be idiots.

Penn is 7 weeks away, and Hillary is the candidate who benefits the most from voter ignorance. And for this it seems obvious Obama would do better in FL and MI now than when their primaries should have taken place.

I like Hillary for universal healthcare, but she's been pressing that issue too little, too late. And she could have settled her war vote as a campaign issue by saying when asked that giving the president the discretion to invade Iraq ultimately worked because Hussein did agree to inspections before the invasion. She simply isn't on top of her own campaign.

At 4:51 PM , Anonymous John fitness training Austin TX said...

They want an electoral mulligan. The big complaint I keep hearing it that the people of FL and MI deserve to have their voices heard. Damn straight they do AND they actually have. The democratic voters in both those states elected people to represent their interests who saw fit to ignore the rules of the national nominating process. The voters of FL and MI should have their say. They did and will. The next time they vote they ought to vote for people other than the knuckleheads that decided to disenfranchise them. 48 out of 50 states managed to get it right.


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